Mattel shares ride the Barbie boom surging 22% in three months… but here’s why analysts warn the momentum might not last

Shares in Barbie-maker Mattel have soared ahead of the hotly anticipated release of the eponymous movie, but analysts warn the momentum might not last.

Shares in the Nasdaq-listed toy maker have risen 22 per cent in the past three months, following a shaky start to the year.

The Barbie movie starring Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, which is set to hit cinemas around the world on 21 July, could help lift the share price further, but for how long?

The Barbie movie starring Margot Robbie (pictured) is set to hit cinemas on 21 July

While brand-focused films tend to create significant share price momentum in the three months ahead of a movie’s release, enthusiasm tends to dampen in the three months that follow, according to analysis by eToro.

The trading and investment platform analysed 10 companies whose story was the focus of a blockbuster movie, or in which they were featured prominently.

And it found that shares in such companies followed a swinging path. 

One of the most notable examples was Audi, which is owned by Volkswagen.

The German car maker saw a 14 per cent share price jump in the build up to 2008’s Iron Man, a film which featured the car brand prominently. 

Following the movie’s launch, the share price fell by 8 per cent.

In the build up to the 2021 film House of Gucci, the fashion label’s owner Kering saw a 6 per cent increase in its stock price in the three-month lead up, but in the three months after fell 13 per cent. 

Similarly, in the lead up to the 2013 film Steve Jobs, Apple enjoyed an 18 per cent share price lift, but in the following months, the stock price moved up by just 3 per cent.

The 10 companies analysed on average saw a 8 per cent share price increase in the build up to the release of their movie. 

But the brands then saw a 4.3 per cent fall in the share price on average three months after the movies’ release. 

Ben Laidler, eToro global markets strategist, said this suggests that the share price boost seems to be temporary, as half of the companies saw their prices fall.

‘The much-anticipated Barbie movie showcases two of the hottest topics in the global media industry: the growth of blockbuster movie franchises and huge product placement revenues,’ he added.

‘Barbie has become one of the largest entertainment franchises out there since its launch in 1956, alongside Star Wars, Disney Princess, Marvel, and Harry Potter, with spin-offs from merchandise sales to TV shows. 

‘The worldwide product placement industry is valued at over $25billion annually and growing at a double-digit pace, with brands increasingly willing to pay-up for this type of mass-media exposure.’

Industry forecasts suggest that the movie will bring in a staggering £850million – ten times what it cost to make.

And thanks to its popularity, sales of Barbie figurines, which hit the £1.15billion mark last year, are expected to increase sharply with the price of vintage models set to explode.

This post first appeared on Dailymail.co.uk