Russia is used to turning critics into political prisoners. And its penal system will play a huge part in the repression to come

I recently spoke to a Russian historian who gave me his prognosis on the consequences of the war in Ukraine for human rights in Russia: “Mass repression and concentration camps.” Already nearly 15,000 people have been detained in Russia for participating in demonstrations against the war. What future awaits these brave citizens, as well as Ukrainians captured in the occupied territories?

Since its occupation of Crimea in 2014, Russia has escalated the punishments for people exercising their right to freedom of speech and assembly. The most recent manifestation of the clampdown on civil rights is the law rushed on to the statute books to punish citizens spreading “fake news” about the military, with custodial sentences of three and a half to fifteen years. Marina Ovsyannikova, who held up an anti-war poster during a news broadcast on Russian state TV Channel One on Monday, may be among the first to fall under the new law.

Judith Pallot is emeritus professor of geography at the University of Oxford. She is currently director of an ERC-funded project researching the Russian prison system in the Aleksanteri Institute, the University of Helsinki

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