It’s called the Inflation Reduction Act but President Biden and the law’s other supporters treat it as the “Emissions Reduction Act.” The law, which Mr. Biden signed last week, is supposed to leave climate-warming greenhouse gases around 40% lower by 2030 from 2005 levels, mainly through subsidies that shift utilities and households to renewable electricity and electric vehicles.
That is symbolically important, since it moves the U.S. closer to its international commitment, but it’s not the bill’s most significant impact. After all, the U.S. was already on track to reduce emissions. The incremental reduction in emissions from the IRA is 6% to 10%, according to the research firm Rhodium Group, or 15%, according to Princeton University’s Zero Lab. This translates to roughly 1% to 3% of expected global emissions in 2030: a start, but not enough to move the needle on temperature.
