In America’s No. 1 Inflation Hotspot, Democrats Face Restive Voters

Jillian Birnbaum, a 37-year-old nurse and mother of two, says she is frustrated by the rising cost of groceries and diapers in her suburban neighborhood. It is one reason the politically independent voter says she is leaning toward Republicans in this fall’s midterm elections.

“There must be some reason for why it’s happening with this administration and not the last one,” said Ms. Birnbaum, who blames increased federal spending in part for fueling inflation and favors divided government. “We are giving out money like it’s growing on trees.”

Arizona’s New 1st Congressional District

Area of detail

DISTRICT 8

DISTRICT 1

Southern half of

McCormick Ranch

Scottsdale

DISTRICT 3

DISTRICT 4

DISTRICT 5

Area of detail

DISTRICT 8

DISTRICT 1

Southern half of

McCormick Ranch

Scottsdale

DISTRICT 3

DISTRICT 5

DISTRICT 4

Area of detail

DISTRICT 8

DISTRICT 1

Southern half of

McCormick Ranch

Scottsdale

DISTRICT 3

DISTRICT 5

DISTRICT 4

Area of detail

DISTRICT 8

DISTRICT 1

Southern half of

McCormick Ranch

Scottsdale

DISTRICT 3

DISTRICT 4

DISTRICT 5

Area of detail

DISTRICT 8

DISTRICT 1

Southern half of

McCormick Ranch

Scottsdale

DISTRICT 3

DISTRICT 4

DISTRICT 5

Ms. Birnbaum’s McCormick Ranch neighborhood is part of a political battleground that will help determine whether Republicans can gain power in November given the problems facing Democrats, including the highest price increases recorded in four decades.

Interviews with residents and local business owners in the neighborhood on Scottsdale’s eastern edge suggest any patience for higher inflation could reach a breaking point by November if prices keep rising or stay high.

A cheeseburger at the Vig restaurant in the Paseo Village shopping center costs $19, up four dollars over the past two years. Gas at the Shell station is hovering close to $5. Prestige Cleaners says the price of metal clothes hangers it uses is up 42% from a year ago, a cost it passes on to consumers.

Economists attribute the surge in inflation to several factors: disruptions to supply chains and shifts in consumption patterns caused by the pandemic, soaring oil prices driven in part by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a decline in the labor force due to early retirements, concerns about Covid and other factors, and strong demand fueled by repeated rounds of fiscal stimulus and the ultralow interest rates maintained by the Federal Reserve.

Since Mr. Biden took office, Phoenix and its suburbs have recorded the highest inflation jump among the nation’s 21 largest metropolitan areas, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows. The area’s Consumer Price Index rose 10.9% from February 2021 through February 2022, the most recent month available, compared with the national average of 7.9%.

The southern half of McCormick Ranch, a development that began its transition from horse breeding grounds to suburban housing five decades ago, is filled with middle-class and upper-middle-class families, and retirees on fixed incomes vulnerable to inflation. It is territory both parties will compete for in this year’s races for an open governor’s seat and a U.S. Senate seat incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly wants to keep.

Inflation rates by metro area during Biden presidency

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Minneapolis

Washington

7.9%

National

average

San Francisco

The Atlanta area, where there will also be key races in determining control of Congress, comes in a close second for inflation during this 12-month period, at 10.6%. The metros of Miami and Tampa, which include competitive districts in the battleground state of Florida, rank third and fourth.

Nationwide, the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania estimates that last year’s inflation required the average household to spend around $3,500 more to achieve the same level of consumption of goods and services as in 2019 or 2020.

Debate over inflation’s causes and how to address the situation have become a political wedge issue. Republicans blame Mr. Biden and other Democrats’ injection of trillions of federal dollars into the economy for surging prices and are using the topic as part of their political advertising.

Democrats counter that there is more at work than just government policies, pointing to a collision of strong consumer demand as the pandemic eased, labor shortages, snarled supply chains and an invasion of Ukraine that have combined to trigger higher prices.

Unsettled voters

Today’s round of price increases comes when jobs are plentiful, wages are rising, but below the inflation rate, home values are up and stocks are above where they were when Mr. Biden took office. Rising prices damp all that and are unsettling voters nationally. A Journal poll conducted March 2-7 showed 58% said inflation is causing them financial strain, while 65% said the economy is headed in the wrong direction. Close to half of voters—47%—said they think Republicans can best tame inflation, compared with 30% who listed Democrats.

“I blame the Biden administration,” said Vanessa Weeks, a 54-year-old interior designer who has lived in the neighborhood for more than three years. “There is no other way to look at it.”

Ms. Weeks, an infrequent voter who considers herself an independent, said she’s cooking at home much more than usual because of restaurant-price increases. She has tried to use as little heat as possible this winter because of high natural-gas prices and cut down on her driving and use of ride-shares because of their higher costs. She blames Mr. Biden for rising gas prices and for offering too much Covid assistance, which she thinks has boosted wages and inflation. “People don’t want to work,” she said.

Mr. Biden has at times said inflation will be temporary. He addressed it in a more robust way in his State of the Union address on March 1. “Too many families are struggling to keep up with the bills,” he said. “Inflation is robbing them of the gains they thought otherwise they would be able to feel. I get it. That’s why my top priority is getting prices under control.”

For the Phoenix metropolitan area, the most recently available year-ago monthly comparisons show gasoline costs were up 44%, natural gas jumped 17% and prices for meats, poultry, fish and eggs collectively rose 16%. Housing prices climbed 12%.

Arizona recorded the nation’s second-narrowest margin in the 2020 presidential election after Georgia, and the southern half of McCormick Ranch sits inside a newly mapped congressional district that is also nearly evenly divided. Former President Donald Trump won the precinct that covers the southern half of the ranch by 1.4 percentage points in 2016, before Mr. Biden recorded a 2.7-percentage-point edge in 2020. In 2018, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema collected 50.98% of the precinct’s vote in her first election to the Senate.

Rep. David Schweikert, a six-term Republican who represents the neighborhood in Washington, said a constituent recently confronted him at Costco, upset about the price of a roast she was about to buy. “People don’t feel as safe or stable,” he said. “At the end of the month, they just don’t feel like they have the same amount of money in the bank.”

Following redistricting, the new 1st District where Mr. Schweikert plans to run for re-election is territory Mr. Biden carried by less than 2 percentage points.

Adam Metzendorf, a former executive with the Phoenix Suns professional basketball team and one of the Democrats seeking the party’s nomination for the congressional seat that covers the neighborhood, said his party needed to make the case for more U.S. manufacturing.

“We need to try to produce more things here, so we aren’t hampered as much by supply chain shortages,” he said. “You also have to show empathy.”

Residents and local business owners say they are feeling inflation’s pain and will weigh the issue among others as they consider candidates this year. Bruce Johnson, 71, a registered Democrat who leans independent, attributes inflation mostly to the pandemic and suspects he’ll vote for some Democrats in November.

“I don’t much care for where the country is heading,” he said, “and I tend to blame Republicans for that because of their obstructionist tactics.”

A retired information-technology worker who has lived in the neighborhood since 2018, Mr. Johnson said he would like to buy a new car, “but we are putting that off because the car prices are unbelievable right now.” He voted for Mr. Biden but hasn’t been very impressed with the administration: “I think he’s doing just OK,” he said. “He got hit with so many tough nuts to crack, so there is no way for him to look good.”

At Prestige Cleaners, owner Donn Frye says “we’re getting hammered” by rising costs for cleaning supplies, labor and hangers. His Paseo Village location goes through close to 10,000 of the least expensive metal hangers they use each month at a cost of about $1,150.

Housing pressure

Adding to pricing pressure, Phoenix was the nation’s fastest-growing big city between 2010 and 2020, moving ahead of Philadelphia to become the fifth largest. It saw one of the nation’s largest influxes of new residents at the start of the pandemic.

Scottsdale Mayor David Ortega, who switched his party registration to independent from Democrat roughly three years ago, said the area’s real-estate market is exhibiting “panic buying” because housing prices are moving up so quickly. For those who own property, he said, inflation offers good and bad news: “The paper equity jumps, but your other costs are up, too.”

The mayor said he thinks Democrats nationally will pay a price in November if inflation doesn’t ease before then because “high inflation definitely gets blamed on the incumbent.”

McCormick Ranch residents Joshua and Nicole Perilstein are frustrated by rising prices and said it could influence their feelings when it comes to picking candidates in the November election. They said they think assistance tied to the pandemic resulted in some people dropping out of the workforce and thus creating inflation pressure on wages for those still in the workforce.

“It has had a ripple effect on things that aren’t temporary,” Ms. Perilstein said. The price increases Ms. Perilstein said she is feeling most are for housing and child care. A 33-year-old actuary, she said her preschool bill for one child recently rose to $1,335 a month, up 12% from two years earlier. The couple would like to have a third child but worry about the cost of daycare and the larger house they might need. “It almost doesn’t matter how much your house is worth,” she said, “because you can’t afford the next house.”

Even with a household income of roughly $200,000, the couple said they were looking for ways to save because of rising prices. In the past year, they have re-shopped their cellphone plans, television programming and other monthly expenses. Before prices started rising, they said, they treated themselves to an upscale meal out about once a month, something they have reduced to roughly quarterly. Mr. Perilstein, 38, is also playing less golf, after watching prices for area courses rise.

After voting for Mr. Trump in 2016, Mr. Perilstein said he backed Mr. Biden in 2020. While he doesn’t want to see Mr. Trump in the White House again, he also isn’t happy with his 2020 vote. “I want to see more done,” he said. “It felt like Trump was doing more.”

Ms. Perilstein, a self-described libertarian who mostly backs Democrats, said she has also been disappointed with the president after voting for him. “I don’t think Biden is doing a good job, but I also think Congress is dysfunctional,” she said. All that has left the couple unsure of which party they will back when they vote in the midterm elections.

At the Vig, a Southwestern-themed tavern, prices have moved steadily higher on most menu items in recent months. Tucker Woodbury, a 63-year-old part owner, said prices have increased for almost all his ingredients.

The Vig raised line cooks’ pay to between $19 and $22 an hour, up from $15 to $18 before the pandemic, he said, and dishwashers make $18 an hour, up from $12.50, and top managers have received 20% pay increases over the period.

Raw chicken wings sell for up to $6 a pound, roughly triple the price before the pandemic, prompting the Vig to raise an order of wings to $16 from $12. “There’s a certain point,” he said, “where I’m almost embarrassed to price chicken wings where I have to.”

Write to John McCormick at [email protected]