GDP is likely to edge sideways in 2023 (if that) but the true impact of rising interest rates have yet to be felt
It is three years this month since the UK went into lockdown and the path of the economy over that period is now strikingly clear. There was an instant collapse in activity which reduced output by more than a quarter followed by a two-stage bounce back interrupted by a second lockdown.
By the end of 2021, the economy – as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) – was pretty much back to where it was before the pandemic struck. Over the last 12 months it has remained at that level rather than returning to its pre-lockdown growth path.
