Democrats’ Minimum-Wage Push Hinges on Senate Ruling

Democrats are using a process called reconciliation to pass the aid package with a simple majority, rather than the 60 votes required for most legislation. But reconciliation also comes with Senate rules on what proposals can be approved under the special procedure—including that the provision be directly tied to the budget. The nonpartisan parliamentarian will hear arguments from both parties and is expected to make a ruling on Wednesday or Thursday on the question.

A favorable ruling from the parliamentarian on raising the minimum wage through reconciliation will open the door for lawmakers to increase the federal minimum wage for the first time since 2009. But then Democrats will have to agree on exactly how to do so.

“It will be a whole caucus discussion because you still have to have 50 votes,” Sen. Jeff Merkley (D., Ore.), a proponent of raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, said.

While many Democrats, including the party’s progressive wing, have embraced raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2025, several senators have qualms about the plan. Some are concerned about the impact the increase could have on small businesses and restaurants, and Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.), the party’s most prominent moderate, has said he would try to amend the wage increase to $11 an hour. Other lawmakers have explored offering tax relief to small businesses or phasing in the wage increase more slowly for smaller firms.

“Putting $15 out there right now just makes it very difficult in rural America, we have small businesses,” Mr. Manchin said.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Mr. Biden welcomed ideas from Mr. Manchin and other lawmakers. “We’ll see where that process lands, but he proposed the $15 increase for a reason and he stands by it,” she said, referring to the president.

Mr. Biden has said he expects the parliamentarian to say that the minimum-wage increase can’t be part of the bill.

If Democrats receive the green light from the parliamentarian, they will have a matter of weeks to reach a compromise among their ranks and still pass the bill before federal unemployment programs expire in mid-March. With control of the Senate split 50-50, Vice President Kamala Harris can break ties but Democrats can’t lose a single lawmaker.

Some proponents of raising the minimum wage are confident that moderate Democrats wouldn’t vote against the entire legislation because of the wage increase.

“Passing this bill isn’t just about backing President Biden—it’s a critical lifeline for people who are really struggling and businesses that might not survive without this help. It’ll be hard for any Democrat to tank the Covid relief package with that in mind,” said Bridgett Frey, a former Democratic aide now a senior director at Bully Pulpit Interactive, a communications firm.

Mr. Biden’s relief plan also provides a $1,400 payment to many Americans; extends and enhances federal unemployment assistance; and sends $350 billion in aid to state and local governments, among other measures. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D., Md.) said that the House would vote on the aid package Friday.

Republicans have argued that the package provides aid that isn’t necessary and unrelated to the pandemic, saying the $15 minimum wage would harm the recovering economy.

“American families should be the starting point. Not preconceived political priorities,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) said Tuesday.

If Ms. MacDonough advises that the Senate can’t raise the minimum wage through the reconciliation process, some House Democrats have said they would push for the White House and lawmakers in the Senate to ignore her ruling. Several senators have said they would be uncomfortable with bending the chamber’s rules to raise the minimum wage.

Healthcare subsidies and support for multiemployer pensions are among the other issues the parliamentarian could also soon rule on. The bill subsidizes 85% of the cost of premiums for healthcare insurance coverage through Cobra, which most employers are required to offer to employees they recently laid off, and offers relief to struggling multiemployer pensions.

Beyond removing measures that face procedural challenges, Democrats are also looking at changing the bill by adding new tax measures to raise revenue and keep its overall price at $1.9 trillion, according to an aide.

The debate on raising the minimum wage will return Ms. MacDonough to the spotlight. A former Senate library worker and trial attorney, she has worked in the parliamentarian’s office since 1999. As both parties rely on the reconciliation process to pass legislation with a simple majority, the parliamentarian’s rulings have played a major role in key legislative efforts, including Republican efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

Write to Andrew Duehren at [email protected] and Kristina Peterson at [email protected]