The Canadian dollar had another mixed week, but this time leaning net positive at the close of Friday. Positive covid vaccine / therapy headlines were once again a driving factor for global risk sentiment, as well as news from the U.S. that the Presidential transition was a go.
Oil traders were also in rally mode on vaccine and OPEC production cut hopes , likely helping the Canadian dollar lean positive as well.
Canadian Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
Canada October wholesale sales seen up 0.9%: StatsCan flash estimate
“Because of our resilient financial system and targeted responses to the pandemic by public authorities, we haven’t seen broad stress across the financial system.”
“Government wage and rent subsidies have helped keep bankruptcy filings low, but we’ll need to watch how more localized shutdowns affect the long recovery.”
“We’re seeing lower levels in household and consumer debt. This is cause for optimism.”
Brent crude oil rises to highest since March on vaccine hopes. This was likely support of the Canadian dollar due to oil being Canada’s largest export.
Tuesday:
No major news or catalysts from Canada, so we saw CAD mixed against the majors, falling against the comdolls while rising against the safe havens. This suggest global risk sentiment was the main driver of price action on the session, which was leaning positive on Monday’s vaccine news and news from the U.S. that the GSA began the US administration transition to President-elect Joe Biden’s team.
Thursday:
In September, the number of employees receiving pay or benefits from their employer rose by 337,500 (+2.2%) – “Total employment—as measured by the LFS—rose by 378,000 (+2.1%) in September, bringing employment to within 720,000 (-3.7%) of the February level.”
Bank of Canada says vaccine could cause economy to rebound faster than expected
Bank of Canada Governor Macklem give opening statement before the House of Commons: “We will get through this pandemic, but it’s going to be a tough slog, and the Bank of Canada will be with Canadians every step of the way.”
Friday:
No major news catalysts on Friday, but we did see a broad move higher in CAD during the Asia session. This correlates with news that China’s industrial profits grow at the quickest monthly pace since early 2017, which may have sparked a risk-on lean in the financial markets.
