The bipartisan infrastructure bill approved by the Senate this month is the latest in a series of extraordinary infusions of federal money into public transit agencies. But all that money likely won’t buy what transit really needs: more riders.
Unless ridership recovers from its pandemic-induced drop, agencies will again confront large budget deficits once the federal money runs out in three or four years, analysts say. That could mean service cuts and fare increases, according to transit agencies.
“As soon as the money stops flowing, transit agencies are going to be in the same position as they were before,” said Baruch Feigenbaum, a transportation policy expert at the libertarian-leaning Reason Foundation.
New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority, for instance, expects to use up its $14.5 billion allocation of federal aid by 2024, at which point it will face a $3.5 billion two-year shortfall.
Transit ridership nationwide fell by 78% between February and April 2020 as the rise in Covid-19 cases prompted people to stay home. Agencies pared back their services but still lost crucial revenue. Fares account for about a third of operating costs, according to the Transportation Department.
