Opinion polls show support for maintaining overseas aid is growing – and the government can no longer afford to ignore it

In all the political shocks of the past five years, large claims have been made about their architects: they’re playing multidimensional chess; they have seen straight through Westminster groupthink, into the very heart of the electorate; they have insights into digital campaigning that leave the other team in the dust.

In fact, the calculations that brought us Brexit, Boris Johnson’s victory, a pandemic marked by chaos and cronyism, and all the polling in between, have been repetitive and very simple. There is no limit to the passionate gullibility of a voter whose reptile brain has been activated. So long as your agenda plays to suspicion and hostility, focuses on the external threat of rapacious out-groups, emphasises the scarcity of all resources, which makes fighting for your own interests a necessity, you have your head of steam.

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