UK economy shrank 2.9% in January due to third coronavirus lockdown

THE UK economy shrank by 2.9% in January after taking a hit due to the third national lockdown, according to official figures.

But the fall wasn’t as bad as the 4.9% dip economists had been expecting.

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UK economy shrank 2.9% in January this year

It’s a step backwards from the end of last year when the economy grew 1.2% between November and December, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The economy is now 9% smaller than its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

January’s economic dip was caused by a third national lockdown in England, Scotland and Wales, with some of the toughest restrictions in place since Covid hit a year ago.

The services sector – which includes restaurants and hotels – was one of the main reasons the economy failed to grow, the ONS said.

It shrank by 3.5% after millions of businesses had to temporarily close under tough new measures.

Deputy national statistician for economic statistics Jonathan Athow said while the economy took a “notable hit”, it was smaller than some expected.

What this means for your personal finances

GROSS domestic product (GDP) is one of the main indicators used to measure the performance of a country’s economy.

When GDP goes up, the economy is generally thought to be doing well although today’s figures aren’t as strong as hoped.

Negative growth often brings with it falling incomes, job cuts and lower consumption.

The Bank of England (BoE) uses GDP as one of the key indicators when it sets the base interest rate.

This decides how much it will charge banks to lend them money, and is a way to try to control inflation and the economy.

So, for example, if prices are rising too fast, the BoE could increase that rate to try to slow the economy down. But it might hold off if GDP growth is slow.

The BoE cut interest rates twice in March due to coronavirus.

Base rate cuts means mortgage borrowers now typically benefit from lower rates, but at the other end of the scale savers earn less on their savings.

To measure GDP, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) collects data from thousands of UK companies.

Andrew Wishart, UK economist at Capital Economics, told The Sun the full impact of the crisis on jobs and businesses will only become apparent once the government starts to withdraw its support.

The research firm expects unemployment to double from 4 per cent to 8 per cent, with the same number of companies likely to go bust.

Meanwhile, the import and export of goods saw the largest monthly fall since records began in January 1997, according to separate ONS data.

This was driven by a 40.7% fall in exports to the EU, and a 28.8% fall in imports from Europe too.

The drop came at a time when some UK supermarkets and retailers warned of delayed deliveries or missing items in orders due to supply chain issues caused by Brexit.

The previous month in December last year, lorry drivers were caught up in 10-mile long queues to get goods into the UK before the Brexit deadline.

Last month, the UK avoided a double dip recession, but still shrunk at its fastest rate in 300 years in 2020.

Gross domestic product (GDP) dropped by 9.9% over the course of the 12 months from January to December due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The record fall – which was caused by the pandemic and businesses being closed due to several lockdowns – also wiped out seven years of economic growth.

Equity broker Redburn chief economist Melissa Davies said the UK is “on the road to recovery” following the latest figures from the ONS.

“At face value, the UK GDP data for January is rather reassuring,” she said.

“Activity was down ‘only’ 2.9% on the month, and 9% year on year.”

National Institute of Economic and Social Research principal economist Rory Macqueen said a further fall in economic growth in February and March might be “smaller than expected”.

He added: “The pace of recovery from the second quarter will depend on whether vaccines continue to roll out according to plan, whether further mutations or outbreaks bring about a resurgence in the virus, and how quickly public confidence returns.”