A ‘seismic’ night at the polls seems to indicate an electorate sending a clear message to the government. What’s the reality?

Looking for a national picture in local council and byelection results always calls to mind the old joke about two drunkards scouring the pavement under a streetlamp. “Are you sure this is where you dropped your keys?” says one. “No,” says the other, “but this is where the light is.”

Rafael Behr is a Guardian columnist

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