Grinding advances and faltering backing for Kyiv have Russian leader confident he has the numbers to win

Vladimir Putin remains intent on trying to defeat and dominate Ukraine two years after launching an invasion that has caused over half a million casualties, western officials said in a fresh assessment of the war.

The Russian president is thought to be notably more optimistic than a year ago, buoyed up by the US failure to sign off $60bn more in military aid and limited recent successes on the battlefield, capturing the town of Avdiivka.

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