British ministers seem keen to avoid what the data tells us: it’s not pay that is turbocharging the cost of living

Inflation is proving hard to shift, and that spells big trouble for a government fast running out of excuses for why the cost of the weekly grocery shop is rising at its fastest rate since 1977.

Global energy prices have collapsed, and the price of food on international commodity markets is coming down too, so it’s hard any longer to blame Vladimir Putin for inflation being so sticky. Nor is it immediately obvious why junior doctors should be the fall guys.

Larry Elliott is the Guardian’s economics editor

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