This holiday season will be different from any other, including what people choose to spend money on.

This year’s Black Friday comes at a critical juncture. New Covid-19 cases are rising sharply, millions of people remain out of work and a number of pandemic-assistance programs put in place during the spring stimulus rounds are set to expire at the end of the year.

Yet Americans’ impulse to spend in the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas should never be underestimated, and hunkered down and in isolation from loved ones, some may find extra comfort in giving gifts this year. Moreover, many people who have remained employed have actually been saving more this year, and have more money at their disposal as a result.

Where people have been spending their money since the pandemic began may provide a good guide to where their holiday spending is going—with some caveats.

Commerce Department figures released Wednesday showed that personal spending rose 0.5% in October from September—better than the gain of 0.3% economists expected. Even so, October’s spending level remained 1.6% below where it was in February, before the crisis struck.

This post first appeared on wsj.com

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