Ukraine’s defence of Bakhmut is inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces, setting the stage for a future Ukrainian counteroffensive.
According to the latest update by the Institute for the Study of War, the attrition experienced by Russian forces in Bakhmut, and stalling offensives elsewhere, mean “the Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months”.
The Russian effort against Bakhmut does not further the Russian military’s operational or strategic battlefield aims, and significant Ukrainian defenses in the surrounding area undermine any tactical significance that capturing Bakhmut likely has for Russian forces. Ukrainian forces will likely have a window of opportunity to seize the battlefield initiative and launch a counteroffensive when the Russian effort around Bakhmut culminates either before or after taking the city.
