Economy Week Ahead: GDP, Central Banks, Factories

The U.S. housing market has been an economic bright spot in recent months. New-home sales in September are likely to continue the trend of solid data across the industry, rising for the fifth consecutive month and reaching levels last seen in 2006.

Tuesday

U.S. manufacturing output has staged a strong if only partial recovery since efforts to contain the coronavirus led to supply-chain disruptions and shutdowns early this year. New orders for durable goods in September will help gauge the strength of demand for long-lasting factory goods heading into the fall.

Thursday

The Bank of Japan is expected to hold its monetary policy steady at the end of a two-day meeting. The bank is slated to release fresh projections for growth and inflation. Economists expect officials to slightly cut their growth forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2021, reflecting weak economic indicators.

The European Central Bank’s governing council isn’t expected to announce significant changes to its policies, but may signal an inclination to provide more stimulus at its December meeting amid mounting signs that a new surge in coronavirus infections has stalled the eurozone’s economic recovery.

U.S. gross domestic product in the third quarter is expected to shatter previous records for growth, reflecting strong rebounds for consumer spending, business investment and real estate as pandemic-related lockdowns lifted and consumers gained new confidence. Even so, the economy is only on track to partially retrace losses experienced in the second quarter, leaving overall output significantly lower than it was prior to the pandemic.

U.S. jobless claims so far in October have fallen to their lowest levels since March, a sign the labor market is slowly healing. Figures for the week ending Oct. 24 are expected to remain historically high—but show another weekly decline, offering more evidence of progress.

Friday

Figures released by the European Union’s statistics agency are expected to show the eurozone economy rebounded strongly in the three months through September after a collapse in activity during the previous quarter. However, the rebound is likely to leave output well below levels recorded prior to the pandemic.

U.S. consumer spending is on track to increase for the fifth straight month in September. Americans have ramped up spending on food, household goods and electronics but have held back on services such as travel and entertainment, leaving overall outlays below their pre-pandemic peak.

Saturday

China’s official purchasing managers index for manufacturing remained in expansionary territory in September for the seventh consecutive month. Another positive reading in October would underscore the factory sector’s—and the broader economy’s—rebound and subsequent stabilization following a sharp but short contraction early in the year.