Ukraine, Russia, the west – no party has achieved their optimistic goals at the start of this conflict
Helmuth von Moltke, the chief of staff for the Prussian army, once made the astute observation that no war plan survives “first contact” with a hostile force. If there was ever a war to validate that claim, it’s the one currently churning in Ukraine. As the conflict in Europe’s largest country marks its six-month anniversary on Wednesday, 24 August, the main protagonists have all experienced their fair share of jolted assumptions, operational mistakes, and misplaced beliefs about what is and isn’t possible. Inflated expectations have been punctured, hopes have been dashed, and strategies crafted to cause the enemy discomfort instead produced unintended consequences that are just as painful.
Take Russia as an example. Sensing Ukrainian forces would either flee or fold in matter of days, Vladimir Putin believed a military operation in Ukraine could easily dispose of the Volodymyr Zelenskiy administration with minimal resistance. Putin assumed that Russia’s security services, with assets burrowed within the Ukrainian political elite, had an accurate, sophisticated reading of Ukraine’s internal dynamics and were confident that the Ukrainian people would welcome a pro-Russian government in Kyiv.
Daniel R DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs columnist at the Chicago Tribune
