Between 2018 and 2020, the U.S. and China fought the biggest trade war since the 1930s, hiking tariffs, upending markets and threatening to plunge the global economy into recession. Since then, the battle has been the subject of dozens of economic studies and lots of political posturing in both countries.

Who won? Figuring out the answer is surprisingly complicated and contains important lessons for those tempted to wield tariffs like weapons.

This post first appeared on wsj.com

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