Even tiny territorial gains will allow Russia to declare success, regroup, and wait to reopen hostilities at a time of its choosing
As Russia builds up its offensive operations in the east of Ukraine, many in the west have suggested that Vladimir Putin has ordered his forces to deliver success in Mariupol in time for Russia’s Victory Day, on 9 May. That’s an assessment based largely on circumstantial evidence and the cult status of Victory Day itself – but it’s not one that’s supported by what Russia is telling its own population, where domestic propaganda channels are no longer making promises of a swift end to the conflict.
Nevertheless, Putin is free to declare victory by whatever artificial deadline he chooses. Russia has already reinvented what its war was supposed to achieve, and can do so again if necessary. Moscow can say it has achieved its aims regardless of the facts on the ground and call an end to its “special operation” at will. This would present Ukraine with another harsh dilemma – the need to fight on while Russia appears to be offering peace, risking the erosion of support from western backers who would prefer an end to the fighting even if, in the long term, it could mean the end of Ukraine.
Keir Giles works with the Russia and Eurasia programme of Chatham House. He is the author of Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West
