Analysis: Looking at the fighting so far, some think Putin will be unable to conquer and occupy, but others see ominous signs

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is already more than three weeks old, and the death toll in the bitter conflict is already likely to have exceeded 10,000. But there is also no sign of a decisive military breakthrough on either side, which could have important consequences for what is to come.

On the one hand, Russia’s attack on its neighbour has been so poorly coordinated that it has left many military experts baffled. Yet while Ukraine’s defence has been exceptionally determined, it is also clear that it cannot force out the 150,000 invading troops from its territory.

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